New obstacles to countering insurgency / terrorism

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: New obstacles to countering insurgency / terrorism
DATE: 23APR

The proliferation of COVID-19 across the Middle East and North Africa poses a potentially significant challenge to governments countering insurgency and terrorism, particularly from religiously inspired actors. In recent weeks, a broad array of jihadist movements affiliated with al-Qaeda and ISIS have expounded on how the virus was an illustration of God’s power on earth and principally, a tool wielded in order to weaken the enemy and leave it vulnerable to attack…
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ISIS operational-tempo increasing in Syrian desert

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: ISIS operational-tempo increasing in Syrian desert
DATE: 22APR

Though ISIS’s territorial state was destroyed a year ago, the terrorist group continues to exist in the shadows and ungoverned spaces, presenting an ongoing insurgent threat across multiple areas of Syria and Iraq. Nowhere is that more clearly the case than in Syria’s central desert, which is controlled, at least on paper, by the Syrian regime and allied Iranian and Russian-backed militias. It is in this expansive desert region known as the “Badia” that ISIS enjoys invaluable strategic depth — utilizing the desert itself as well as an array of cave complexes to hide out and from which to set up fake checkpoints, launch ambushes and raids, and carry out assassinations, IED attacks, and kidnappings…
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Syria’s 2020 outlook

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Syria’s 2020 outlook
DATE: 06JAN2020

No matter where you look, the prospects for Syria and its people in 2020 seem extremely grim. Militarily, the most concerning issue remains the fate of Idlib, where at least three million people – roughly 16 percent of Syria’s in-country population – remain crammed in a killing-zone that encompasses just 3.5 percent of its territory…
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Baghdadi’s death and ISIS

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Baghdadi’s death and ISIS
DATE: 28OCT2019

The death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is one of the biggest counter-terrorism achievements of the 21st century and by all accounts, a result of impressive cooperation between America and partners in Iraq, Turkey, and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). However, as significant as his death might be, this will not spell the end of ISIS — in Syria and Iraq or further afield…
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Iraq - As protests boil, political elite seeks scapegoat

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Iraq - as protests boil, political elite seeks scapegoat
DATE: 16JUL2018

Summer protests over water and electricity shortages, poor services, and corruption are not new in Iraq. Yet this year’s protests seem to have caught Iraqi officials by surprise…
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How ISIL tested European security and intel services

ISIS_PROUD_7.16

The case of Muhammad Dalil serve as an object lesson, from which Europe’s counter-terrorism agencies could learn from this and other past experiences of this kind what not to do and the high importance of tightening operational intelligence and discipline in their ranks.
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Seizing the moment in Syria

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Seizing the moment in Syria
DATE: 11APR2016

Since the cessation of hostilities began in Syria, activists in several cities have once again begun taking to the streets. What is telling is that in a number of the communities the activists have been brandishing the flag of the moderate Free Syrian Army (FSA), a repudiation of both the…
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Syria - Cease-fire and jihadist groups

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Syria - Cease-fire and jihadist groups
DATE: 21MAR2016

The ongoing reduction in hostilities on the ground has transformed broader conflict dynamics across Syria, empowering Syria’s populist protest movement; eroding the success of al-Qaida’s strategic long game approach; and providing openings for a broader fight against ISIS…
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Turkey - Terror attacks feeds local anti-Americanism

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Turkey - Terror attacks feeds local anti-Americanism
DATE: 21MAR2016

The P.Y.D’s (Democratic Union Party - Kurdish opposition parties in Syria, accused by Turkey of being a terror group aligned with the Syrian branch of the PKK) move to declare an autonomous Kurdish zone in northeastern Syria has infuriated neighboring Turkey. The P.Y.D. move comes amid increasing terror attacks in Turkey, with the latest suicide bombing, this time perpetrated by ISIS, killing five in Istanbul over the weekend. The upsurge in terror attacks is likely to heighten Turkey’s sensitivity to the developments in neighboring Syria and further feed anti-Americanism.

The ruling A.K.P. (Justice and Development Party abbreviated officially AK Parti in Turkish) has been fueling the public perception that Turkey is increasingly falling victim to regional dynamics of sectarian, religious and ethnic violence in Syria. Except for the liberal circles, there is rarely any mention to the domestic roots of the intensifying fight between the P.K.K. and the state, and the growing ISIS threat.

Instead, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan constantly refers to the external roots of terrorism and foreign forces supporting Turkey’s enemies. The ruling party presents the rise of ISIS as the result of the West’s failure to pursue a more forceful policy against the Assad regime. The A.K.P. also portrays the P.K.K.’s intensifying attacks against Turkey as the result of P.Y.D.-American cooperation. Therefore, an increase in terror attacks on Turkish soil by P.K.K-.linked groups and ISIS is likely to strain Turkey-U.S. relations and strengthen Turkey’s opposition to the P.Y.D. gains in northern Syria.

Syria - Jabhat al-Nusra crackdown in Idlib

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Jabhat al-Nusra crackdown in Idlib
DATE: 14MAR2016

Ten days ago, under the relative calm of Syria’s cessation of hostilities, hundreds of civilians gathered in the Idlib town of Maarat al-Numan to celebrate the continuation of their populist revolution. For the first time in many months, the world heard Syrian people peacefully protesting in favor of change: “the people are one, and united, the revolution continues!” they chanted, while waving the three star revolutionary flag made popular by the moderate Free Syrian Army (FSA). Similar demonstrations took place in over 100 other towns across the country that day, in a stark reminder to the world that five years of being brutally suppressed by their own government had not defeated their zeal for…
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