Syria - Cease-fire and jihadist groups
AX INTEL BULLETIN: Syria - Cease-fire and jihadist groups
DATE: 21MAR2016
The ongoing reduction in hostilities on the ground has transformed broader conflict dynamics across Syria, empowering Syria’s populist protest movement; eroding the success of al-Qaida’s strategic long game approach; and providing openings for a broader fight against ISIS…
AX INTEL BULLETIN: Syria - Cease-fire and jihadist groups
DATE: 21MAR2016
The ongoing reduction in hostilities on the ground has transformed broader conflict dynamics across Syria, empowering Syria’s populist protest movement; eroding the success of al-Qaida’s strategic long game approach; and providing openings for a broader fight against ISIS.
Al-Qaida has now faced a week of protests against its strong influence in parts of Idlib. Its subjugation of the CIA- and Saudi-backed 13th Division has driven men, women and children repeatedly out onto the streets, to condemn what they now see as an aggressive outsider force unwilling to allow the populist and moderate roots of the revolution to come back to the fore within its key stronghold. These anti-al-Qaida protests have since spread, finally revealing into the open long-held opposition concerns about al-Qaida’s Syrian affiliate that most people have been too afraid to voice until now.
This serves as a reminder that the core of Syria’s revolution and opposition movement remains averse to extremism. Moreover, this provides an invaluable opportunity for the so-called Friends of Syria to finally empower genuinely moderate forces to definitely differentiate themselves from actors who, when push comes to shove, do not have the revolution’s best interests in mind. So far, Jabhat al-Nusra has taken a step back from reacting overly aggressively to the protests, but its patience will last only so long. If and when it does choose to do so, it could put down opposition to its influence in Idlib quickly and with little mercy.
ISIS, meanwhile, faces continued challenges to its territorial control in northeastern Syria, but newer ones in the southeast. A U.S. and Saudi-backed anti-ISIS forces known as the New Syrian Army has exerted itself in areas adjacent to the Jordanian border, centered around the strategically valuable al-Tanf border crossing. Now potentially faced by capable and internationally-supported forces in both the south and north, ISIS has intensified raid operations to serve as distractions north of Aleppo, around Shadadi and Deir Ezzor.
Most importantly however, it has launched new and powerful advances in southern Syria close to the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Under the new leadership of Saudi national Abu Abdullah al-Madani, ISIS proxy force Liwa Shuhada Yarmouk has now established a limited presence in important long opposition-held towns like Jassem, Inkhil, Tasil and Tel Jumaa. These are important developments, with potentially serious consequences. They will also serve to weaken and distract the opposition, providing potential opportunities for pro-regime forces.