Turkey and Russia - what’s going on?

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Turkey and Russia - what’s going on?
DATE: 19JUN2020

The BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front): The mutual willingness of Washington and Ankara to rebuild their ties will be the key determinant of the future of the Turkish-Russian relationship. Turkey, Russia, and even the United States in the coming years will all be vulnerable to domestic turbulence and each inevitably will encounter crises in their foreign relations. Many things can change. As this piece goes to press and U.S.-Turkish relations continue to deteriorate, however, one can only expect that the trajectory of Turkish-Russian relations will continue in a positive direction. Read More...

Turkey vs Russia in the drone wars

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Turkey vs Russia in the drone wars
DATE: 27APR2020

In February Turkey began ramping up its military presence in Syria’s Idlib Province, sending a huge number of reinforcements to enforce the de-escalation zone outlined in the 2018 Sochi agreement with Russia and prevent the al-Assad regime from displacing millions of civilians toward the Turkish border as it sought to recapture the last major opposition stronghold…
Read More...

Turkey's endgame in Syria

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Turkey's endgame in Syria
DATE: 15OCT2019

In a stunning announcement on Sunday, the Trump administration gave the nod to a Turkish military incursion into northeastern Syria, an operation that would entail clashes with Washington’s Kurdish allies in the area. The U.S. military, which has around 1,000 troops in Syria, would not “support or be involved in the operation.” But the White House said…
Read More...

Is Erdogan misreading Putin on Libya?

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Is Erdogan misreading Putin on Libya?
DATE: 12MAR2020

After Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hammered out a deal with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on 05MAR to bring an end to the fighting in Idlib in northwestern Syria, he said he was hopeful that the two countries could extend their cooperation to Libya. Turkey and Russia back opposing fronts in the North African country’s civil war…
Read More...

Turkey - Terror attacks feeds local anti-Americanism

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Turkey - Terror attacks feeds local anti-Americanism
DATE: 21MAR2016

The P.Y.D’s (Democratic Union Party - Kurdish opposition parties in Syria, accused by Turkey of being a terror group aligned with the Syrian branch of the PKK) move to declare an autonomous Kurdish zone in northeastern Syria has infuriated neighboring Turkey. The P.Y.D. move comes amid increasing terror attacks in Turkey, with the latest suicide bombing, this time perpetrated by ISIS, killing five in Istanbul over the weekend. The upsurge in terror attacks is likely to heighten Turkey’s sensitivity to the developments in neighboring Syria and further feed anti-Americanism.

The ruling A.K.P. (Justice and Development Party abbreviated officially AK Parti in Turkish) has been fueling the public perception that Turkey is increasingly falling victim to regional dynamics of sectarian, religious and ethnic violence in Syria. Except for the liberal circles, there is rarely any mention to the domestic roots of the intensifying fight between the P.K.K. and the state, and the growing ISIS threat.

Instead, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan constantly refers to the external roots of terrorism and foreign forces supporting Turkey’s enemies. The ruling party presents the rise of ISIS as the result of the West’s failure to pursue a more forceful policy against the Assad regime. The A.K.P. also portrays the P.K.K.’s intensifying attacks against Turkey as the result of P.Y.D.-American cooperation. Therefore, an increase in terror attacks on Turkish soil by P.K.K-.linked groups and ISIS is likely to strain Turkey-U.S. relations and strengthen Turkey’s opposition to the P.Y.D. gains in northern Syria.

Syrian political process at a standstill

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Syrian political process at a standstill
DATE: 29OCT2020

Following a rare summit in Istanbul on 27OCT, the leaders of Turkey, Russia, Germany, and France agreed to support existing UN-led efforts to form a constitutional committee by late 2018, as the first phase of “an inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political process.”…
Read More...

Syria’s 2020 outlook

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Syria’s 2020 outlook
DATE: 06JAN2020

No matter where you look, the prospects for Syria and its people in 2020 seem extremely grim. Militarily, the most concerning issue remains the fate of Idlib, where at least three million people – roughly 16 percent of Syria’s in-country population – remain crammed in a killing-zone that encompasses just 3.5 percent of its territory…
Read More...

Russia warned Turks of coup

aptopix-turkey-milita-759
Russian military intelligence in the northern Syrian province of Latakia, a few miles south of the Turkish border intercepted a series of encoded radio messages exchanged between Turkish commanders in the early hours of July 15 and pass this information to Turkish intelligence. Read More...

AX does not sell, rent, share, transfer or monetize your personal data in any way, for any reason, whatsoever.