Turkey vs Russia in the drone wars

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Turkey vs Russia in the drone wars
DATE: 27APR2020

In February Turkey began ramping up its military presence in Syria’s Idlib Province, sending a huge number of reinforcements to enforce the de-escalation zone outlined in the 2018 Sochi agreement with Russia and prevent the al-Assad regime from displacing millions of civilians toward the Turkish border as it sought to recapture the last major opposition stronghold…
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DHS warns of attacks by extremists re COVID-19

AX INTEL BULLETIN: DHS warns of attacks by extremists re COVID-19
DATE: 24APR2020

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has warned law enforcement departments across the United States that violent extremists are mobilizing against health restrictions imposed to combat the novel coronavirus. This is the third warning known to have been issued by the DHS in the past month about the potential of violence by domestic violent extremists…
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Yemen - Cease fire ends today

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Yemen - Cease fire ends today
DATE: 23APR2020

The two-week cease-fire declared by Saudi Arabia on 09APR is due to expire on April 23, not coincidentally the anticipated start of the holy month of Ramadan. The Saudis asserted at the outset that they were motivated by a desire to re-focus energies on combatting the threat of coronavirus in Yemen…
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Radical groups using COVID-19

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Radical groups using COVID-19
DATE: 23APR2020

The two main intelligence agencies of Belgium have published a declassified report in which they warn that domestic groups on the far left and far right of the political spectrum are using the COVID-19 pandemic to destabilize society. Among other things, these groups are spreading disinformation in order to…
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Cyberwar - Iranian Naksha Warriors

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Cyberwar - Iranian Naksha Warriors
DATE: 23APR

Blurring the lines between the physical world and the online one, the Iranian group known as the “Nakhsa Warriors” remains cloaked in mystery. Their identity and status are unclear. Are they a military force that carries out operations, an online group of like-minded individuals that share content, part of an Iranian disinformation campaign — or perhaps something else altogether?
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New obstacles to countering insurgency / terrorism

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: New obstacles to countering insurgency / terrorism
DATE: 23APR

The proliferation of COVID-19 across the Middle East and North Africa poses a potentially significant challenge to governments countering insurgency and terrorism, particularly from religiously inspired actors. In recent weeks, a broad array of jihadist movements affiliated with al-Qaeda and ISIS have expounded on how the virus was an illustration of God’s power on earth and principally, a tool wielded in order to weaken the enemy and leave it vulnerable to attack…
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Iran & Economic Fallout of C19

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Iran & Economic Fallout of C19
DATE: 23APR2020

COVID-19’s impact on Iran, one of the early epicenters of the outbreak, has been particularly severe. With official figures (likely very under-reported when compared to the percentages coming from open societies) of nearly 75,000 confirmed cases and over 4,600 deaths, it is among the top 10 hardest hit countries. The outbreak is expected to peak around late May and researchers are worried that if the Iranian public and government do not adhere to significantly stricter quarantine and social distancing measures, COVID-19-related deaths could reach as high as 3.5 million or 4.3 percent of Iran’s total population…
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ISIS operational-tempo increasing in Syrian desert

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: ISIS operational-tempo increasing in Syrian desert
DATE: 22APR

Though ISIS’s territorial state was destroyed a year ago, the terrorist group continues to exist in the shadows and ungoverned spaces, presenting an ongoing insurgent threat across multiple areas of Syria and Iraq. Nowhere is that more clearly the case than in Syria’s central desert, which is controlled, at least on paper, by the Syrian regime and allied Iranian and Russian-backed militias. It is in this expansive desert region known as the “Badia” that ISIS enjoys invaluable strategic depth — utilizing the desert itself as well as an array of cave complexes to hide out and from which to set up fake checkpoints, launch ambushes and raids, and carry out assassinations, IED attacks, and kidnappings…
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C19, oil and redesigning the Middle East

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: C19, oil and redesigning the Middle East
DATE: 22APR // 2245GMT

The Middle East is facing an unexpected turning point. The region will not look the same after COVID-19 as it did before it. Prior to the outbreak, the Middle East had managed to normalize the geostrategic implications of the Arab Spring. Tunisia transitioned to a fully functioning democracy, Egypt ended up with a strongman, Syria became a catastrophe, Jordan and Morocco enacted some reforms, while Algeria and Sudan are still struggling with transitions and Lebanon stands on the brink of economic collapse…
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COVID-19 Impact on Near East

AX C19 BULLETIN: Impact on the Middle East
DATE: 23APR2020 // 1308GMT

  • Worldwide Confirmed 2,639,243
  • Recovered 715,734
  • Deaths 183,820

The coronavirus crisis in the Middle East is in its early stages, and looks set to have devastating humanitarian and economic costs. Deaths could rise into the millions, and economic contraction could be in the double digits. The pandemic risks pushing more precarious countries toward collapse, exacerbating civil wars, generating more refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs), and escalating regional conflict…
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US-Iran and impact on Iraq

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: US-Iran and impact on Iraq
DATE: 21APR2020

While Iraq’s domestic political crisis continues, the geopolitical face-off between the U.S. and Iran has broadened out, ensnaring civic actors in a mainly military (non)confrontation. Militias have launched rockets at the Green Zone in Baghdad, which houses government buildings and all international representation, seemingly in line with the wishes of their strongest political and financial backers in Tehran…
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Yemen - Saudis see an exit but talks won’t resolve conflict

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Yemen - Saudis see an exit but talks won’t resolve conflict
DATE: 15APR2020

During the Munich Security Conference in February 2020, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, signaled that the Saudi-Houthi backchannel talks were not “ready to move to the highest level.” However, the situation changed following the Houthi ballistic missile attack…
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Egypt COVID-19 - cracks showing

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Egypt COVID-19 - cracks showing
DATE: 13APR2020

COVID-19 may be the ultimate unwelcome visitor. Its arrival was bad news but its stay is even worse and the longer that stay the more pressure it places on its hosts.

In Egypt, as with almost every country worldwide, that pressure is starting to show cracks.
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