Turkey and Russia - what’s going on?
19/06/20 10:23
AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Turkey and Russia - what’s going on?
DATE: 19JUN2020
The BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front): The mutual willingness of Washington and Ankara to rebuild their ties will be the key determinant of the future of the Turkish-Russian relationship. Turkey, Russia, and even the United States in the coming years will all be vulnerable to domestic turbulence and each inevitably will encounter crises in their foreign relations. Many things can change. As this piece goes to press and U.S.-Turkish relations continue to deteriorate, however, one can only expect that the trajectory of Turkish-Russian relations will continue in a positive direction. Read More...
DATE: 19JUN2020
The BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front): The mutual willingness of Washington and Ankara to rebuild their ties will be the key determinant of the future of the Turkish-Russian relationship. Turkey, Russia, and even the United States in the coming years will all be vulnerable to domestic turbulence and each inevitably will encounter crises in their foreign relations. Many things can change. As this piece goes to press and U.S.-Turkish relations continue to deteriorate, however, one can only expect that the trajectory of Turkish-Russian relations will continue in a positive direction. Read More...
Yemen and the implications for Russia in the area
19/06/20 09:45
AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Yemen and the implications for Russia in the area
DATE: 19JUN2020
Since Russia’s military intervention in Syria intensified in September 2015, many analysts have been busy trying to assess and understand Moscow’s role in the Near East (NE) and North Africa (NAF). When discussing Russia’s regional foreign policy, the following three points are key… Read More...
DATE: 19JUN2020
Since Russia’s military intervention in Syria intensified in September 2015, many analysts have been busy trying to assess and understand Moscow’s role in the Near East (NE) and North Africa (NAF). When discussing Russia’s regional foreign policy, the following three points are key… Read More...
Turkey vs Russia in the drone wars
27/04/20 07:43
AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Turkey vs Russia in the drone wars
DATE: 27APR2020
In February Turkey began ramping up its military presence in Syria’s Idlib Province, sending a huge number of reinforcements to enforce the de-escalation zone outlined in the 2018 Sochi agreement with Russia and prevent the al-Assad regime from displacing millions of civilians toward the Turkish border as it sought to recapture the last major opposition stronghold… Read More...
DATE: 27APR2020
In February Turkey began ramping up its military presence in Syria’s Idlib Province, sending a huge number of reinforcements to enforce the de-escalation zone outlined in the 2018 Sochi agreement with Russia and prevent the al-Assad regime from displacing millions of civilians toward the Turkish border as it sought to recapture the last major opposition stronghold… Read More...
Is Erdogan misreading Putin on Libya?
21/03/20 06:31
AX INTEL BULLETIN: Is Erdogan misreading Putin on Libya?
DATE: 12MAR2020
After Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hammered out a deal with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on 05MAR to bring an end to the fighting in Idlib in northwestern Syria, he said he was hopeful that the two countries could extend their cooperation to Libya. Turkey and Russia back opposing fronts in the North African country’s civil war… Read More...
DATE: 12MAR2020
After Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hammered out a deal with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on 05MAR to bring an end to the fighting in Idlib in northwestern Syria, he said he was hopeful that the two countries could extend their cooperation to Libya. Turkey and Russia back opposing fronts in the North African country’s civil war… Read More...
Turkey's 2020 outlook
06/01/20 06:35
AX INTEL BULLETIN: Turkey's 2020 outlook
DATE: 06JAN2020
2019 proved to be a difficult year for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. At home, he faced several challenges, including a troubled economy, unrest within his own party, and a significant loss at the ballot box. The long-running problems in Turkey-U.S. relations got worse, Turkey-EU tensions heightened, and Ankara found itself isolated in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Turkey cultivated closer ties to Russia, but that partnership was not without its problems either… Read More...
DATE: 06JAN2020
2019 proved to be a difficult year for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. At home, he faced several challenges, including a troubled economy, unrest within his own party, and a significant loss at the ballot box. The long-running problems in Turkey-U.S. relations got worse, Turkey-EU tensions heightened, and Ankara found itself isolated in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Turkey cultivated closer ties to Russia, but that partnership was not without its problems either… Read More...
Syrian political process at a standstill
29/10/18 14:03
AX INTEL BULLETIN: Syrian political process at a standstill
DATE: 29OCT2020
Following a rare summit in Istanbul on 27OCT, the leaders of Turkey, Russia, Germany, and France agreed to support existing UN-led efforts to form a constitutional committee by late 2018, as the first phase of “an inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political process.”… Read More...
DATE: 29OCT2020
Following a rare summit in Istanbul on 27OCT, the leaders of Turkey, Russia, Germany, and France agreed to support existing UN-led efforts to form a constitutional committee by late 2018, as the first phase of “an inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political process.”… Read More...
Ukraine intel sharing w/UK intel info on new Russian tactics
12/08/16 17:50
A delegation of Ukrainian military officials, with considerable experience in studying Russia’s war tactics in Donbass and Crimea, secretly visited the United Kingdom in July for consultations. The visit was part of a series of meetings between Ukrainian and British officials. Read More...
Russia warned Turks of coup
17/07/16 13:45
Russian military intelligence in the northern Syrian province of Latakia, a few miles south of the Turkish border intercepted a series of encoded radio messages exchanged between Turkish commanders in the early hours of July 15 and pass this information to Turkish intelligence. Read More...
Russian SVR HQ (old KGB) doubles in size
13/07/16 17:58
These additions appear to have increased the SVR headquarters’ floor space by a factor of two or more. Moreover, the nearby parking capacity at the complex appears to have quadrupled. There is no information available about what may have prompted the sudden building expansion at the SVR complex, nor whether it reflects drastic changes in the organizational structure, budget or mission of the agency. Read More...
Seizing the moment in Syria
11/04/16 16:55
AX INTEL BULLETIN: Seizing the moment in Syria
DATE: 11APR2016
Since the cessation of hostilities began in Syria, activists in several cities have once again begun taking to the streets. What is telling is that in a number of the communities the activists have been brandishing the flag of the moderate Free Syrian Army (FSA), a repudiation of both the… Read More...
DATE: 11APR2016
Since the cessation of hostilities began in Syria, activists in several cities have once again begun taking to the streets. What is telling is that in a number of the communities the activists have been brandishing the flag of the moderate Free Syrian Army (FSA), a repudiation of both the… Read More...
U.S. - SecState's Moscow Visit Unlikely to Bridge Divide on Syria
21/03/16 06:23
AX INTEL BULLETIN: U.S. - SecState's Moscow Visit Unlikely to Bridge Divide on Syria
DATE: 21MAR2016
While the U.S.-Russian collaboration in Syria is a work-in-progress, no major breakthroughs should be expected from DOS Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit to Moscow. Both countries endorse political negotiations as the means to reaching a peace agreement in Syria, but they remain divided over… Read More...
DATE: 21MAR2016
While the U.S.-Russian collaboration in Syria is a work-in-progress, no major breakthroughs should be expected from DOS Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit to Moscow. Both countries endorse political negotiations as the means to reaching a peace agreement in Syria, but they remain divided over… Read More...