Turkey and Russia - what’s going on?

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Turkey and Russia - what’s going on?
DATE: 19JUN2020

The BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front): The mutual willingness of Washington and Ankara to rebuild their ties will be the key determinant of the future of the Turkish-Russian relationship. Turkey, Russia, and even the United States in the coming years will all be vulnerable to domestic turbulence and each inevitably will encounter crises in their foreign relations. Many things can change. As this piece goes to press and U.S.-Turkish relations continue to deteriorate, however, one can only expect that the trajectory of Turkish-Russian relations will continue in a positive direction. Read More...

Turkey vs Russia in the drone wars

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Turkey vs Russia in the drone wars
DATE: 27APR2020

In February Turkey began ramping up its military presence in Syria’s Idlib Province, sending a huge number of reinforcements to enforce the de-escalation zone outlined in the 2018 Sochi agreement with Russia and prevent the al-Assad regime from displacing millions of civilians toward the Turkish border as it sought to recapture the last major opposition stronghold…
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Turkey's endgame in Syria

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Turkey's endgame in Syria
DATE: 15OCT2019

In a stunning announcement on Sunday, the Trump administration gave the nod to a Turkish military incursion into northeastern Syria, an operation that would entail clashes with Washington’s Kurdish allies in the area. The U.S. military, which has around 1,000 troops in Syria, would not “support or be involved in the operation.” But the White House said…
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Is Erdogan misreading Putin on Libya?

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Is Erdogan misreading Putin on Libya?
DATE: 12MAR2020

After Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hammered out a deal with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on 05MAR to bring an end to the fighting in Idlib in northwestern Syria, he said he was hopeful that the two countries could extend their cooperation to Libya. Turkey and Russia back opposing fronts in the North African country’s civil war…
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Turkey - Terror attacks feeds local anti-Americanism

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Turkey - Terror attacks feeds local anti-Americanism
DATE: 21MAR2016

The P.Y.D’s (Democratic Union Party - Kurdish opposition parties in Syria, accused by Turkey of being a terror group aligned with the Syrian branch of the PKK) move to declare an autonomous Kurdish zone in northeastern Syria has infuriated neighboring Turkey. The P.Y.D. move comes amid increasing terror attacks in Turkey, with the latest suicide bombing, this time perpetrated by ISIS, killing five in Istanbul over the weekend. The upsurge in terror attacks is likely to heighten Turkey’s sensitivity to the developments in neighboring Syria and further feed anti-Americanism.

The ruling A.K.P. (Justice and Development Party abbreviated officially AK Parti in Turkish) has been fueling the public perception that Turkey is increasingly falling victim to regional dynamics of sectarian, religious and ethnic violence in Syria. Except for the liberal circles, there is rarely any mention to the domestic roots of the intensifying fight between the P.K.K. and the state, and the growing ISIS threat.

Instead, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan constantly refers to the external roots of terrorism and foreign forces supporting Turkey’s enemies. The ruling party presents the rise of ISIS as the result of the West’s failure to pursue a more forceful policy against the Assad regime. The A.K.P. also portrays the P.K.K.’s intensifying attacks against Turkey as the result of P.Y.D.-American cooperation. Therefore, an increase in terror attacks on Turkish soil by P.K.K-.linked groups and ISIS is likely to strain Turkey-U.S. relations and strengthen Turkey’s opposition to the P.Y.D. gains in northern Syria.

Yemen - positive signs?

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Yemen - positive signs?
DATE: 21MAR2016

Weeks after scattered rumors of direct contacts between the Houthi and the Saudis, reports have emerged of a cease-fire deal. The agreement has yet to receive official confirmation, but calm was restored in parts of the country over the weekend, while fighting continued in…
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Syria - Jabhat al-Nusra crackdown in Idlib

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Jabhat al-Nusra crackdown in Idlib
DATE: 14MAR2016

Ten days ago, under the relative calm of Syria’s cessation of hostilities, hundreds of civilians gathered in the Idlib town of Maarat al-Numan to celebrate the continuation of their populist revolution. For the first time in many months, the world heard Syrian people peacefully protesting in favor of change: “the people are one, and united, the revolution continues!” they chanted, while waving the three star revolutionary flag made popular by the moderate Free Syrian Army (FSA). Similar demonstrations took place in over 100 other towns across the country that day, in a stark reminder to the world that five years of being brutally suppressed by their own government had not defeated their zeal for…
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Syria - Pro-al-Assad forces continue west

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Syria - Pro-al-Assad forces continue west
DATE: 16JUL2018

Following its strategic victory in Syria’s southern Daraa governorate, the pro-Assad alliance is now on the march, having launched a new military offensive to the west in Quneitra, along the border with Israel-controlled areas in the Golan Heights. This conquest, conducted without protest from…
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Syrian political process at a standstill

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Syrian political process at a standstill
DATE: 29OCT2020

Following a rare summit in Istanbul on 27OCT, the leaders of Turkey, Russia, Germany, and France agreed to support existing UN-led efforts to form a constitutional committee by late 2018, as the first phase of “an inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political process.”…
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Soleimani’s assassination & what’s next?

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Soleimani’s assassination & what’s next?
DATE: 03JAN2020

The killing of Qassem Soleimani is one of the biggest developments in the Middle East in decades — it far eclipses the deaths of Osama bin Laden or Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in terms of strategic significance and implications.

The U.S. and Iran have been engaged in a dangerous tit-for-tat for months now, but this is a massive walk up the escalation ladder…
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Syria’s 2020 outlook

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Syria’s 2020 outlook
DATE: 06JAN2020

No matter where you look, the prospects for Syria and its people in 2020 seem extremely grim. Militarily, the most concerning issue remains the fate of Idlib, where at least three million people – roughly 16 percent of Syria’s in-country population – remain crammed in a killing-zone that encompasses just 3.5 percent of its territory…
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Baghdadi’s death and ISIS

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Baghdadi’s death and ISIS
DATE: 28OCT2019

The death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is one of the biggest counter-terrorism achievements of the 21st century and by all accounts, a result of impressive cooperation between America and partners in Iraq, Turkey, and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). However, as significant as his death might be, this will not spell the end of ISIS — in Syria and Iraq or further afield…
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Cyberwar - Iranian Naksha Warriors

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Cyberwar - Iranian Naksha Warriors
DATE: 23APR

Blurring the lines between the physical world and the online one, the Iranian group known as the “Nakhsa Warriors” remains cloaked in mystery. Their identity and status are unclear. Are they a military force that carries out operations, an online group of like-minded individuals that share content, part of an Iranian disinformation campaign — or perhaps something else altogether?
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Arm the Syrian Rebels?

syrian rebels
Syria, while different from Libya in many ways, is similar in one: if the United States fails to provide support in the form of arming the rebels who are attempting to overthrow Assad, another group will. Already, we see al-Qaeda elements from Iraq slipping across the border and Muslim Brotherhood support flowing in from Turkey. Read More...

Background on al-Assad of Syria

assad
An eye doctor runs Syria. How did he inherit that place and who is helping him? Iran? The Brotherhood? What should the US do? Read More...

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