Iran - watch this guy
07/07/20 14:39
AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Iran - watch this guy
DATE: 07JUL2020
The first-generation of Iran’s militant clerics, who took control of the country after the Iranian revolution of 1979, are all either dead or dying off. Speculation about the process of succession is rife and is not only limited to who will capture the ultimate prize, the seat of the supreme leader. In a series of articles, AX will identify and assess key second-tier officials in the Islamic Republic who seem to have good prospects to make it all the way to the top. Read More...
DATE: 07JUL2020
The first-generation of Iran’s militant clerics, who took control of the country after the Iranian revolution of 1979, are all either dead or dying off. Speculation about the process of succession is rife and is not only limited to who will capture the ultimate prize, the seat of the supreme leader. In a series of articles, AX will identify and assess key second-tier officials in the Islamic Republic who seem to have good prospects to make it all the way to the top. Read More...
Iran - the IRGC eyeing the presidency?
07/07/20 14:26
AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Iran - the IRGC eyeing the presidency?
DATE: 07JUL2020
With the election of former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s “Second Phase of the Revolution” is well under way in two of the three branches of government in the Islamic Republic. All eyes have now turned to the presidency, with elections less than one year away. Read More...
DATE: 07JUL2020
With the election of former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s “Second Phase of the Revolution” is well under way in two of the three branches of government in the Islamic Republic. All eyes have now turned to the presidency, with elections less than one year away. Read More...
Iran - secret project to produce aluminum for missiles
24/06/20 08:34
AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Iran - secret project to produce aluminum for missiles
DATE: 24JUN2020
At the edge of the desert in North Khorasan province in northeast Iran, near the country’s largest deposit of bauxite, sits an aluminum production complex that the government has publicly hailed as a key part of its efforts to boost output of the metal.
But the site near the city of Jajarm is also home to a secret facility set up by Iran’s elite security force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, that has been producing aluminum powder for use in its missile program… Read More...
DATE: 24JUN2020
At the edge of the desert in North Khorasan province in northeast Iran, near the country’s largest deposit of bauxite, sits an aluminum production complex that the government has publicly hailed as a key part of its efforts to boost output of the metal.
But the site near the city of Jajarm is also home to a secret facility set up by Iran’s elite security force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, that has been producing aluminum powder for use in its missile program… Read More...
Turkey and Russia - what’s going on?
19/06/20 10:23
AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Turkey and Russia - what’s going on?
DATE: 19JUN2020
The BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front): The mutual willingness of Washington and Ankara to rebuild their ties will be the key determinant of the future of the Turkish-Russian relationship. Turkey, Russia, and even the United States in the coming years will all be vulnerable to domestic turbulence and each inevitably will encounter crises in their foreign relations. Many things can change. As this piece goes to press and U.S.-Turkish relations continue to deteriorate, however, one can only expect that the trajectory of Turkish-Russian relations will continue in a positive direction. Read More...
DATE: 19JUN2020
The BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front): The mutual willingness of Washington and Ankara to rebuild their ties will be the key determinant of the future of the Turkish-Russian relationship. Turkey, Russia, and even the United States in the coming years will all be vulnerable to domestic turbulence and each inevitably will encounter crises in their foreign relations. Many things can change. As this piece goes to press and U.S.-Turkish relations continue to deteriorate, however, one can only expect that the trajectory of Turkish-Russian relations will continue in a positive direction. Read More...
Iran - cyberattack against Israeli water supply
09/05/20 09:44
AX INTEL BULLETIN: Iran - cyberattack against Israeli water supply
DATE: 09MAY2020
Iran is being linked to an attempted cyberattack last month aimed at disrupting water supplies in at least two locations in Israel as that country was seeking to contain a C-19 outbreak… Read More...
DATE: 09MAY2020
Iran is being linked to an attempted cyberattack last month aimed at disrupting water supplies in at least two locations in Israel as that country was seeking to contain a C-19 outbreak… Read More...
Turkey vs Russia in the drone wars
27/04/20 07:43
AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Turkey vs Russia in the drone wars
DATE: 27APR2020
In February Turkey began ramping up its military presence in Syria’s Idlib Province, sending a huge number of reinforcements to enforce the de-escalation zone outlined in the 2018 Sochi agreement with Russia and prevent the al-Assad regime from displacing millions of civilians toward the Turkish border as it sought to recapture the last major opposition stronghold… Read More...
DATE: 27APR2020
In February Turkey began ramping up its military presence in Syria’s Idlib Province, sending a huge number of reinforcements to enforce the de-escalation zone outlined in the 2018 Sochi agreement with Russia and prevent the al-Assad regime from displacing millions of civilians toward the Turkish border as it sought to recapture the last major opposition stronghold… Read More...
Cyberwar - Iranian Naksha Warriors
23/04/20 09:51
AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Cyberwar - Iranian Naksha Warriors
DATE: 23APR
Blurring the lines between the physical world and the online one, the Iranian group known as the “Nakhsa Warriors” remains cloaked in mystery. Their identity and status are unclear. Are they a military force that carries out operations, an online group of like-minded individuals that share content, part of an Iranian disinformation campaign — or perhaps something else altogether? Read More...
DATE: 23APR
Blurring the lines between the physical world and the online one, the Iranian group known as the “Nakhsa Warriors” remains cloaked in mystery. Their identity and status are unclear. Are they a military force that carries out operations, an online group of like-minded individuals that share content, part of an Iranian disinformation campaign — or perhaps something else altogether? Read More...
Iran & Economic Fallout of C19
23/04/20 08:28
AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Iran & Economic Fallout of C19
DATE: 23APR2020
COVID-19’s impact on Iran, one of the early epicenters of the outbreak, has been particularly severe. With official figures (likely very under-reported when compared to the percentages coming from open societies) of nearly 75,000 confirmed cases and over 4,600 deaths, it is among the top 10 hardest hit countries. The outbreak is expected to peak around late May and researchers are worried that if the Iranian public and government do not adhere to significantly stricter quarantine and social distancing measures, COVID-19-related deaths could reach as high as 3.5 million or 4.3 percent of Iran’s total population… Read More...
DATE: 23APR2020
COVID-19’s impact on Iran, one of the early epicenters of the outbreak, has been particularly severe. With official figures (likely very under-reported when compared to the percentages coming from open societies) of nearly 75,000 confirmed cases and over 4,600 deaths, it is among the top 10 hardest hit countries. The outbreak is expected to peak around late May and researchers are worried that if the Iranian public and government do not adhere to significantly stricter quarantine and social distancing measures, COVID-19-related deaths could reach as high as 3.5 million or 4.3 percent of Iran’s total population… Read More...
US-Iran and impact on Iraq
21/04/20 08:17
AX INTEL ANALYSIS: US-Iran and impact on Iraq
DATE: 21APR2020
While Iraq’s domestic political crisis continues, the geopolitical face-off between the U.S. and Iran has broadened out, ensnaring civic actors in a mainly military (non)confrontation. Militias have launched rockets at the Green Zone in Baghdad, which houses government buildings and all international representation, seemingly in line with the wishes of their strongest political and financial backers in Tehran… Read More...
DATE: 21APR2020
While Iraq’s domestic political crisis continues, the geopolitical face-off between the U.S. and Iran has broadened out, ensnaring civic actors in a mainly military (non)confrontation. Militias have launched rockets at the Green Zone in Baghdad, which houses government buildings and all international representation, seemingly in line with the wishes of their strongest political and financial backers in Tehran… Read More...
Yemen - Saudis see an exit but talks won’t resolve conflict
15/04/20 03:12
AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Yemen - Saudis see an exit but talks won’t resolve conflict
DATE: 15APR2020
During the Munich Security Conference in February 2020, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, signaled that the Saudi-Houthi backchannel talks were not “ready to move to the highest level.” However, the situation changed following the Houthi ballistic missile attack… Read More...
DATE: 15APR2020
During the Munich Security Conference in February 2020, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, signaled that the Saudi-Houthi backchannel talks were not “ready to move to the highest level.” However, the situation changed following the Houthi ballistic missile attack… Read More...
Soleimani’s assassination & what’s next?
03/01/20 07:56
AX INTEL BULLETIN: Soleimani’s assassination & what’s next?
DATE: 03JAN2020
The killing of Qassem Soleimani is one of the biggest developments in the Middle East in decades — it far eclipses the deaths of Osama bin Laden or Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in terms of strategic significance and implications.
The U.S. and Iran have been engaged in a dangerous tit-for-tat for months now, but this is a massive walk up the escalation ladder… Read More...
DATE: 03JAN2020
The killing of Qassem Soleimani is one of the biggest developments in the Middle East in decades — it far eclipses the deaths of Osama bin Laden or Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in terms of strategic significance and implications.
The U.S. and Iran have been engaged in a dangerous tit-for-tat for months now, but this is a massive walk up the escalation ladder… Read More...
Yemen - War primer
26/09/19 14:41
AX INTEL BULLETIN: Yemen - Background on the war
DATE: 26SEP2019
Many international commentators continue to present the war in Yemen through the lens of Saudi Arabian intervention or sectarian conflict. This narrative has even influenced the US Congress, where some members have passed legislation that rests on the assumption that the war is between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, rather than… Read More...
DATE: 26SEP2019
Many international commentators continue to present the war in Yemen through the lens of Saudi Arabian intervention or sectarian conflict. This narrative has even influenced the US Congress, where some members have passed legislation that rests on the assumption that the war is between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, rather than… Read More...
Yemen’s 60-yr old war
06/12/18 14:49
AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Yemen’s 60-yr old war
DATE: 06DEC2018
What are the prospects for peace in war-torn Yemen? How important is Iran to the peace process?
Restoring security and stability in Yemen is going to be a long-term process. Successful peace negotiations — including a ceasefire and confidence-building measures — can only be a first step toward that broader objective. Ending the fighting will require that all parties — the government backed by a Saudi-led coalition and the Houthis with their Iranian supporters… Read More...
DATE: 06DEC2018
What are the prospects for peace in war-torn Yemen? How important is Iran to the peace process?
Restoring security and stability in Yemen is going to be a long-term process. Successful peace negotiations — including a ceasefire and confidence-building measures — can only be a first step toward that broader objective. Ending the fighting will require that all parties — the government backed by a Saudi-led coalition and the Houthis with their Iranian supporters… Read More...
Iran prepares for sanctions
29/10/18 14:01
AX INTEL BULLETIN: Iran prepares for sanctions
DATE: 29OCT2020
On 28OCT, for the first time in its history, Iran sold some of its crude oil via an energy exchange house. This new approach of selling to anonymous private customers is part of Tehran’s efforts to evade US sanctions on Iranian oil, which are set to be imposed from Nov. 4. Whether it will be that much harder for Washington to identify… Read More...
DATE: 29OCT2020
On 28OCT, for the first time in its history, Iran sold some of its crude oil via an energy exchange house. This new approach of selling to anonymous private customers is part of Tehran’s efforts to evade US sanctions on Iranian oil, which are set to be imposed from Nov. 4. Whether it will be that much harder for Washington to identify… Read More...
Syria - Pro-al-Assad forces continue west
16/07/18 14:27
AX INTEL BULLETIN: Syria - Pro-al-Assad forces continue west
DATE: 16JUL2018
Following its strategic victory in Syria’s southern Daraa governorate, the pro-Assad alliance is now on the march, having launched a new military offensive to the west in Quneitra, along the border with Israel-controlled areas in the Golan Heights. This conquest, conducted without protest from… Read More...
DATE: 16JUL2018
Following its strategic victory in Syria’s southern Daraa governorate, the pro-Assad alliance is now on the march, having launched a new military offensive to the west in Quneitra, along the border with Israel-controlled areas in the Golan Heights. This conquest, conducted without protest from… Read More...
Iran - subverting Saudi Arabia from within
10/01/17 16:51
AX INTEL BULLETIN: Iran - subverting Saudi Arabia from within
DATE: 10JAN2017
In fresh evidence that the government of Iran continues its efforts to undermine Saudi stability and security from within, a Saudi court has convicted a Saudi businessman of plotting with the government of Iran to… Read More...
DATE: 10JAN2017
In fresh evidence that the government of Iran continues its efforts to undermine Saudi stability and security from within, a Saudi court has convicted a Saudi businessman of plotting with the government of Iran to… Read More...
Hizbollah front company in Kuwait
04/01/17 16:48
AX INTEL BULLETIN: Hizbollah front company in Kuwait
DATE: 04JAN2017
A Lebanese company fronting for Hizbollah allegedly has contracted with Kuwait University to provide students with training in computers and information science, according to the Kuwaiti daily al-Shahed. Alarmed Kuwaitis have asked the Ministry of Education to investigate the reports… Read More...
DATE: 04JAN2017
A Lebanese company fronting for Hizbollah allegedly has contracted with Kuwait University to provide students with training in computers and information science, according to the Kuwaiti daily al-Shahed. Alarmed Kuwaitis have asked the Ministry of Education to investigate the reports… Read More...
Iran - Nuclear by end of 2017
29/07/16 17:02
If Tehran decides to violate the accord Iran retains the capability to achieve this goal in months — not years. Read More...
Yemen - positive signs?
21/03/16 06:15
AX INTEL BULLETIN: Yemen - positive signs?
DATE: 21MAR2016
Weeks after scattered rumors of direct contacts between the Houthi and the Saudis, reports have emerged of a cease-fire deal. The agreement has yet to receive official confirmation, but calm was restored in parts of the country over the weekend, while fighting continued in… Read More...
DATE: 21MAR2016
Weeks after scattered rumors of direct contacts between the Houthi and the Saudis, reports have emerged of a cease-fire deal. The agreement has yet to receive official confirmation, but calm was restored in parts of the country over the weekend, while fighting continued in… Read More...