effecting change.

Soleimani’s assassination & what’s next?

03/01/20 07:56 Filed in: iran | iraq | syria | terrorism

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Soleimani’s assassination & what’s next?
DATE: 03JAN2020

The killing of Qassem Soleimani is one of the biggest developments in the Middle East in decades — it far eclipses the deaths of Usama bin Laden or Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in terms of strategic significance and implications.

The U.S. and Iran have been engaged in a dangerous tit-for-tat for months now, but this is a massive walk up the escalation ladder.

Israel has repeatedly spurned the opportunity to kill Soleimani for fear of the consequences of taking out Iran’s most powerful operative, someone whose power is outshone only by Iran's supreme leader.

His death is a serious loss for Iran’s regional agenda, and the Iranians likely hope his “martyrdom” will likely fuel a response that will, at least in the medium term, make up for his death.

That Soleimani’s killing was an action ordered by U.S. President Trump, is all the more surprising, given his clear determination to avoid American involvement in costly wars.

With Soleimani dead, war is coming — that seems certain, the only questions are where, in what form, and when?

While America dominates the world in terms of conventional military force, Iran’s advantage is in the asymmetric sphere, so rocket attacks, bombings, assassinations, cyber warfare, attacks on U.S. bases and personnel in Syrian and Iraq and even attacks like the missile assault on Saudi oil facilities in September 2019 are all possible responses.

There really is no underestimating the geopolitical ramifications of this.

For starters, the U.S. presence in Syria now looks very vulnerable, having already shrunk in size and weakened in terms of credibility and partner trust.

A single attack on U.S. positions could feasibly catalyze a military withdrawal and second abandonment of the Kurds.

In Iraq, U.S. diplomatic and military facilities are almost certain to come under some form of attack and covert intimidation.

However, the likelihood of an overwhelming response from the U.S. would also be strong possibility. This could factor into the Iranian calculus and see the Iranians using proxy militia to carry out attacks, thereby avoiding blame and direct U.S. retaliation.

The death of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis alongside Soleimani has just mobilized tens of thousands of Popular Mobilization Forces militiamen against America’s presence in Iraq like never before.

It’s in Iraq that Iran may have its swiftest response, but Iraq is also a complex place. Weeks of protests across Iraq have shown the popular tide sway against Iran and these newly tense circumstances could feasibly provide an environment for Iranian proxies to be perceived as the source of more problems than solutions.

Having said that, pressure will rise further in Iraq’s Parliament to push for a decree ordering the expulsion of American troops from the country.

Beyond the immediate environment, Israel may reap serious security repercussions and U.S. allies in the Gulf, particularly Bahrain, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, could all fall victim to Iranian retaliatory measures, as could al-Udeid base in Qatar.

Soleimani’s death will be a cause for celebration for many — his role in coordinating pro-Assad crimes in Syria have seen him become a deeply reviled figure for many in the region. But it may be the likes of Syrians who suffer the consequences of this major escalation.

Tags: iran, iraq, syria, terrorism