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COVID-19 Impact on Near East

23/04/20 08:04 Filed in: covid-19

AX C19 BULLETIN: Impact on the Middle East
DATE: 23APR2020 // 1308GMT

Worldwide Confirmed 2,639,243
Recovered 715,734
Deaths 183,820

AX C19 BULLETIN: Impact on the Middle East
DATE: 23APR2020 // 1308GMT

Worldwide Confirmed 2,639,243
Recovered 715,734
Deaths 183,820

The coronavirus crisis in the Middle East is in its early stages, and looks set to have devastating humanitarian and economic costs. Deaths could rise into the millions, and economic contraction could be in the double digits. The pandemic risks pushing more precarious countries toward collapse, exacerbating civil wars, generating more refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs), and escalating regional conflict.

Alternatively, the crisis could and should serve as a wake-up call to regional leaders, to look beyond narrow regime and geopolitical interests, and beyond political or sectarian agendas. Unless regional states act urgently and in a coordinated fashion, this could be the worst crisis in modern Middle Eastern history.

First in priority are populations in ungoverned spaces and civil war conditions who will be hit hard by the virus and don’t have any state institutions to lean on. This means refugees and IDPs in Syria, Yemen, and Libya. Countries with a large underclass living in crowded informal settlements will also be of grave concern. This is the case in Egypt, but in several other countries as well. These crowded and impoverished communities will have neither the space to practice social distancing nor the means to weather an economic slowdown of any kind.

More broadly, all the economies of the region — already struggling to maintain modest growth and provide employment — will be hit very hard by many months of effective shutdown, as well as a likely global recession. The large non-oil-rich countries will be particularly hit hard. The double impact of a massive pandemic and a virtual economic collapse might lead several countries — large and small — to state failure which might in turn have years-long — indeed decades-long — effects, resulting in ungoverned spaces, civil wars, refugees in the millions, and more space for radical and terrorist groups.

This bulletin will look at

• Jordan
• Israel
• Egypt
• Lebanon
• Syria
• Turkey
• Gulf states
• Yemen
• Iran
• Pakistan & Afghanistan

JORDAN

Confirmed 435
Recovered 315
Deaths 7

The situation in Jordan remains fluid but ostensibly under control. Last week, the government activated Defense Law No. 13, putting country under lockdown and banning movement between the 12 governorates. With people flouting explicit orders, the government moved ahead with more stringent measures, locking in, on March 21, an indefinite curfew, punishable by up to one year in prison.

Jordan’s economy will be hit hard. Still reeling from external shocks and high levels of debt and unemployment, the crisis complicates matters considerably. Micro and small enterprises, which make up over 90 percent of the private sector, are particularly vulnerable. Almost half were in bad financial health before this crisis began. The tourism sector, a driving force for the country’s economy that just a month ago was projected to retain its upward trajectory with an 11 percent increase in revenues over early 2019, has already suffered a huge blow. With the U.S., Germany, and Italy its top source markets outside the region, the sector’s woes are significant.

The Central Bank of Jordan reduced compulsory reserves for commercial banks to inject liquidity and cushion the economic shock. In a show of solidarity, the private sector stepped up with donations to help the government counter the virus. As the crisis deepens, low income Jordanians will be the hardest hit. With the informal economy employing half of the workforce, many families will find the loss of cash flow hard to absorb.

Indicative of the national mood, social media posts have been predominantly positive and in favor of the government, which has earned significant political capital because of its deft management of the situation.

ISRAEL

Confirmed 14,592
Recovered 5,334
Deaths 191

The number of Israelis (including Israeli settlers in the Occupied Territories) confirmed to have contracted COVID-19 is 14,498 with 189 fatalities reported so far. Despite the ballooning numbers, the Israeli Ministry of Health is still urging (rather than mandating) Israelis to remain at home. Israel is reportedly testing around 2,000 individuals a day. However, of the 100,000 COVID-19 test kits brought into Israel, just 400 were provided to the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank and another 200 to the Gaza Strip.

With the number of cases in Israel soaring, the Israeli government has approved giving the Shin Bet the authority to track the cell phones of those infected with the virus. Moreover, on March 19, Yuli Edelstein, chairman of the Knesset and a Netanyahu loyalist, suspended the Israeli Parliament.

EGYPT

Confirmed 3,659
Recovered 935
Deaths 276

Egyptian governments have always been sensitive to what might be called the “religion factor.” This has generally meant a certain deference to any matter seen as touching on the religious beliefs or practices of a generally devout society regardless of the actual religion or denomination. This probably explained why, in the midst of a global pandemic, people were allowed to flock to Friday prayers, despite a religious edict saying they should pray at home, and why churches held extra services, supposedly to avoid overcrowding.

No longer. Egypt has registered 3659 cases of COVID-19 with 276 fatalities to date. The government apparently took a look at the climbing transmission rate and decided that God was in the details and not in houses of worship. In an unprecedented move, mosques and churches have been shuttered, for at least two weeks, to try to contain further transmission of the coronavirus. The call to prayer also received a slight update, for the first time in over 1400 years, with the devout being asked to “pray at home.”

Also on the religious front, any worshippers returning from Mecca have been asked to self-isolate at home and the government has cancelled its publicly sponsored Hajj trips, with the Minister for Religious Endowments Mokhtar Gomaa announcing that the earmarked funds, plus an additional EGP 50 million, would be redirected to Egyptians affected by the economic impact of the virus, particularly the most vulnerable — those with irregular employment or those who had been laid off.

While security sources had maintained that discrete regional closures and curfews would be more likely to start with the government decided that half measures were no longer sustainable. The prime minister announced a partial curfew, from 19:00 till 06:00 daily, for the next two weeks. During the curfew hours, all mass public and private transport will be suspended, and Mabouly added that violators would be subject to emergency law penalties, which vary from a EGP 4,000 ($253) fine to jail terms.

On the economic front, stamp duties on shares have been reduced (twice as much for nationals as foreign investors), foreigners will be exempt from capital gains tax (Egyptians till 2022), subsidies will go into effect on gas and electricity, and property tax collection will be allayed.

LEBANON

Confirmed 682
Recovered 130
Deaths 22

As the pandemic has dealt a crushing blow to many of the economies of major donor countries around the world, an already frustrated international community appears unlikely to help Lebanon. This has forced individuals and local initiatives to step in to make up for the failings of the state, the bankruptcy of which was made clear on March 23 when the Lebanese Finance Ministry said it has decided to “discontinue payments on all its outstanding $US-denominated Eurobonds.” This follows the country’s default on a $1.2 billion payment that was due on March 9.

Over the last week, the government has ordered the Lebanese Armed Forces and Internal Security Forces to enforce a “medical state of emergency.” Schools, restaurants, and nightclubs were ordered to close weeks after the first cases of COVID-19 were announced late last month. There has been some concern among the military community that this may increase the likelihood of the virus spreading within the army since it will be in closer contact with civilians not abiding by the quarantine order.

There has been public frustration over the amount of time it took to close the country’s only functioning passenger airport to flights from Iran, Italy, and other areas hit hard by COVID-19. Land, air, and sea borders have all been ordered closed, and Syria announced over the weekend that its borders with Lebanon would be completely shut as well. It’s unclear what this means for Hezbollah fighters shuttling back and forth between Beirut and Damascus. Speaking on March 20, Hezbollah’s secretary-general claimed that all fighters were being screened and checked before going to Syria and upon their return to Lebanon.

SYRIA

Confirmed 42
Recovered 6
Deaths 3

Syria’s Ministry of Health acknowledged 42 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 3 deaths in territories it controls. Many observers think the contagion is already widespread in the country, especially in the face of rising virus caseloads in neighboring states as well as in Iran, with which Syria has close military and tourist connections. The Syrian government in the past week has ordered measures that indicate its serious concern, including banning transport between governorates, suspending most businesses and reducing government office work, closing the border with Lebanon and Turkey, and even introducing an amnesty for some prisoners to reduce prison crowding. These measures will worsen life for Syria’s small business sector and consumers already suffering from shortages and high price inflation. Syria’s mismanaged and resource-starved health sector also appears largely inadequate to the challenge ahead. Doctors have posted pictures on social media of expired pharmaceuticals and the filthy conditions in a Damascus virus quarantine center. The World Health Organization (WHO) has been dispatching supplies and equipment.

Even more serious is what foreign medical NGOs working in northwest Syria’s Idlib Province warn is a looming catastrophe. The 3 million Syrian civilians there have few operating medical facilities after repeated Syrian and Russian airstrikes. In the absence of testing equipment, doctors suspect but haven’t confirmed several local cases of the virus. According to the Idlib Health Directorate, there are only 200 ICU beds operational and plans are for 60 beds for coronavirus victims, wholly inadequate for a destitute population largely living in squalid, crowded camps. Supplies and equipment from the WHO are scheduled to arrive this week, long after such aid reached Damascus.

TURKEY

Cases 98,674
Recovered 16,477
Deaths 2,376

Turkish Minister of Health Fahrettin Koca argues that the government is taking the necessary measures in a very transparent way, but the Turkish Medical Association (TTB) disagrees. The TTB says that the government has to release information on the confirmed cases, such as which cities have been hit the hardest and the names of cities and centers that are conducting the tests. According to the doctors at the TTB, in order to see where Turkey stands in the fight against coronavirus, the number of tests should be increased. Turkey has only carried out around 10,000 tests and tens of thousands more have to be conducted to determine whether Turkey is pursuing an effective strategy to curb the spread of the virus.

But President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is optimistic. He said that the pandemic could provide an opportunity for Turkish manufacturers as production shifts away from China. In his first major address about the outbreak of the coronavirus, he struck a calm tone, focusing on the nation’s economy rather than addressing medical and social measures to curb the spread of the virus. He introduced an economic stimulus package and suspended tax, social security, and credit payments. Erdogan’s package does not offer any tangible financial support to citizens, however. He advised people to stay at home, but did not ask them to stay away from work and failed to announce additional measures to restrict movement.

Doctors, medical professionals, and economic analysts fear the government’s response is not robust enough to avoid a repeat of the “Italian scenario,” one of the countries that has been worst hit by coronavirus. In the meantime, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) is offering its own support package, and some municipalities run by the CHP are doing a far better job in terms of taking measures to curb the spread of COVID-19. Coronavirus is poised to pose an unprecedented challenge to Turkish society, politics, and economy, and it could broaden the opposition’s appeal if they lead an effective fight against the virus in the municipalities they run.

GULF STATES

Saudi Arabia

Confirmed 12,772
Recovered 1,812
Deaths 114

Kuwait

Confirmed 2,248
Recovered 443
Deaths 13

United Arab Emirates

Confirmed 8,238
Recovered 1,546
Deaths 52

Qatar

Confirmed 7,141
Recovered 689
Deaths 10

Bahrain

Confirmed 2,027
Recovered 1,026
Deaths 7

Oman

Confirmed 1,614
Recovered 238
Deaths 8

Aggressive moves to limit the impact of coronavirus within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states so far appear to have paid off.

The UAE announced, on March 23, that it was suspending all flights in and out of the country, including transit flights, for two weeks beginning on March 25. To comply, Emirates Airlines announced that it will end all passenger flights that day, although its cargo service will continue. As a global transit hub, the Emirati decision, which will close international airports to all passengers in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah, will have far-reaching effects on the movement of people well beyond the region.

Saudi Arabia has also taken unprecedented decisions to control the spread of the disease, including the temporary closure of the Grand Mosque in Mecca and the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina to allow for sterilization. Travelers entering the kingdom are required to self-quarantine for 14 days upon arrival. Supermarkets and pharmacies, while remaining open, have been directed to sterilize their shopping carts after each use. In the Eastern Province, the Qatif oasis, center of Saudi oil production, is on lockdown and movement in and out of the province is heavily restricted.

The Saudi government, as this year’s chair of the G-20 group of major industrial nations, called for a virtual summit to discuss a coordinated response to the virus and to discuss the human and economic implications of the pandemic.

YEMEN

Confirmed 1
Recovered 0
Deaths 0

Although the first COVID-19 case was just reported in Yemen, local parties to the conflict are taking some positive measures to confront the pandemic in both government-held and militia-run areas. These limited procedures, such as training teams and establishing quarantine measures, are being carried out in coordination with the World Health Organization. However, given the global struggles in dealing with the virus, it is safe to say that Yemen will face a formidable threat when it spreads, especially considering the strong Iranian presence in the country supporting the Houthi militias.

Several issues are of concern. On the technical front, Yemen’s health infrastructure is stretched thin. It has struggled to deal with cholera, diphtheria, and schistosomiasis in the past. Severe water shortages and difficulties accessing water are a problem throughout the country. Yemenis depend on trucks to deliver water, and in rural areas, they walk for miles to get it. Add to this the devastating impact of previous aerial raids and shelling on Yemen’s sanitation infrastructure, which makes maintaining proper hygiene a challenge. In addition, some of the quarantine measures that have been implemented could easily end up spreading the virus instead of limiting it. Videos in circulation show travelers held up for hours at garbage-strewn checkpoints without medical care as they wait to enter Houthi territory, in the name of quarantine.

Politically, things could be better too. The Houthi militia, which is allied with Iran, has been politicizing the crisis, attacking the Saudis for suspending prayers, and promoting Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s theories that COVID-19 is a U.S.-made virus. These conspiracy theories are destructive in confronting the threat because they affect attitudes and responses. The Houthis are also focused on conquering new territory in the north of the country, which has caused a massive and unexpected wave of internal displaced persons (IDPs) that the government and international community were not prepared for. The situation has been exacerbated by recent flooding, which destroyed the IDP camp, making the return of the displaced to their homes more crucial than ever. Other cities such as Hodeida and Taiz need the Houthis to lift restrictions on the ability to move freely and access humanitarian assistance.

But Yemen is not entirely hopeless. It has faced multiple health crises before, meaning local health professionals have some experience in dealing with outbreaks. What is important now is to ensure a steady supply of resources, along with strong leadership that could lead Yemen out of this looming crisis. The local authorities have to increase awareness among the population and follow the same measures that countries elsewhere are adopting in terms of hygiene and social distancing. Greater awareness of the threat and a halt in fighting could go a long way toward saving Yemen.

IRAN

Confirmed 87,026
Recovered 64,843
Deaths 5,481

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has leveled a series of groundless charges against the U.S. over the coronavirus crisis. His insinuation that the U.S. might both be behind the virus and also have deliberately designed it to target the genetic pool of the Iranian population smacks of vindictiveness. Khamenei is making these ridiculous accusations for two main reasons. First, it’s petty revenge since in his mind the Trump administration has constantly vilified him and his rule. Second, and more importantly, Khamenei is following the lead of China and Russia — two states that have engaged in their own disinformation campaign against the U.S.

In particular, China is being praised by state media in Tehran for its response to the coronavirus crisis. For Khamenei, this is not just about choosing a side in a PR battle between Beijing and Washington. It is about doubling-down on a long-held view that Iran’s geopolitical future and fortunes are linked to a rising China. No rebuttal or counter-measures from the U.S. will convince Khamenei otherwise as anti-Americanism long been a central feature of his worldview. Nonetheless, Washington would be badly mistaken not to do its utmost to disprove that U.S. sanctions policy is deliberately targeting the Iranian population.

China, Russia, the Gulf states, and the Europeans are all now sending aid to Iran to help contain the crisis. The Trump administration maintains that Tehran has rejected its offer of aid, and that might well be true, but Washington cannot afford to leave it at that. As Iran’s application for a $5 billion emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund has been denied, the Trump administration will only encourage Khamenei’s outlandish claims. And yet, Washington can insist that every dollar that is sent to Iran is used only to combat the coronavirus crisis, with none of the money going to support Ayatollah Khamenei’s militant Islamist ideological projects across the region.

PAKISTAN / AFGHANISTAN

Pakistan

Confirmed 10,513
Recovered 2,337
Deaths 224

Pakistan’s ability to manage its COVAD-19 crisis is being increasingly tested. The number of confirmed cases climbed on Wednesday. Pakistan’s recent rapid increase is said to be following a trajectory that matches Italy’s earlier. Doctors across the country are reporting a shortage of protective equipment and ventilators, and those in several government hospitals are threatening to refuse to treat patients unless problems are addressed. Concerned about the spread of the coronavirus at local prisons, the Islamabad High Court released 1,300 people currently facing trial. Provincial governments in Sindh, where the number of confirmed cases is greatest, as well as in Punjab and Balochistan have asked the Federal Interior Ministry to approve deployment of the army. Yet over most of the country people continue to be permitted to congregate for mosque prayers.

Prime Minister Imran Khan ordered a lockdown to last until 30APR but gave in to clerics’ demands that mosques be allowed to stay open during the Islamic holy month. As an economic slowdown is already being felt, Khan has announced the reopening of Pakistan’s major border crossing with Afghanistan at Chaman for commercial truck traffic. The country’s already squeezed economy is projected to sustain a tax revenue loss of 300 billion rupees ($3.9 billion) in the second quarter. To aid in Pakistan’s COVID response, the U.S. State Department has pledged $1 million in support.

Afghanistan

Confirmed 1,176
Recovered 166
Deaths 40

In Afghanistan, the number of identified coronavirus cases is difficult to access as testing begins to ramp up. Most seriously, the country lacks the equipment to screen the thousands of people crossing daily from Pakistan and Iran. Meanwhile, the fragile domestic economy is bracing for the inevitable impact of the virus. Already affected is an intra-Afghan peace process that for all its other problems getting off the ground is taking a necessary back seat to the looming health crisis.

Tags: covid-19, Intel bulletin