Iraq - As protests boil, political elite seeks scapegoat
16/07/18 14:20 Filed in:
iraq | ISIS | shiite | sunni | kurdsAX INTEL BULLETIN: Iraq - as protests boil, political elite seeks scapegoat
DATE: 16JUL2018
Summer protests over water and electricity shortages, poor services, and corruption are not new in Iraq. Yet this year’s protests seem to have caught Iraqi officials by surprise…
AX INTEL BULLETIN: Iraq - as protests boil, political elite seeks scapegoat
DATE: 16JUL2018
Summer protests over water and electricity shortages, poor services, and corruption are not new in Iraq. Yet this year’s protests seem to have caught Iraqi officials by surprise. Military units were rushed to protest centers in southern Iraq to reign in demonstrators. Internet access was cut to prevent protesters from organizing online. Promises of billions of dollars in jobs and better service delivery were made.
While this protest movement might eventually get co-opted and pacified as has happened in the past, there are structural socioeconomic and environmental challenges facing Iraq that can no longer be contained with promises that go unfulfilled. In the last three years, the fight against ISIS pushed these challenges to the back burner, as Iraqis prioritized the threat posed by ISIS over other problems. With the ISIS fight “officially” winding down, and thousands of militias coming home to face a bleak economic future, the political elites in Baghdad, and particularly the Da’wa officials who have occupied the office of prime minister since 2005, are being called upon to answer for their dismal governance record. It is no coincidence that Haider al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki, the two Da’wa candidates, came in third and fifth in the last parliamentary elections.
The challenge facing Iraqis is that none of the other leading political parties and figures—be it the Shi‘a, Arab Sunnis, or Kurds—have a better governance record and are not corrupt. Muqtada al-Sadr, who jumped on the 2016 protest bandwagon, seems to be the least-targeted politician in this protest wave. This will increase his leverage in ongoing negotiations to form the next government. Abadi’s chances at returning to the post of prime minister have diminished. A scapegoat is needed to tamp down the protesters’ anger and frustration, and he will likely be the one. By capitalizing on Abadi’s political woes, Hadi al-Ameri, the Badr militia leader, is positioning himself to be Iraq’s next prime minister.Tags: iraq, ISIS, shiite, sunni, kurds