Turkey, Gulf countries and Libya: economics and division

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Turkey, Gulf countries and Libya: economics and division
DATE: 19JUN2020

Turkish support for the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) in the Libyan civil war has added a new dimension to relations between Turkey and Gulf countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. But what impact have the growing geopolitical divides and diplomatic disagreements had on Turkish-Emirati and Turkish-Saudi economic relations?
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Iran & Economic Fallout of C19

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Iran & Economic Fallout of C19
DATE: 23APR2020

COVID-19’s impact on Iran, one of the early epicenters of the outbreak, has been particularly severe. With official figures (likely very under-reported when compared to the percentages coming from open societies) of nearly 75,000 confirmed cases and over 4,600 deaths, it is among the top 10 hardest hit countries. The outbreak is expected to peak around late May and researchers are worried that if the Iranian public and government do not adhere to significantly stricter quarantine and social distancing measures, COVID-19-related deaths could reach as high as 3.5 million or 4.3 percent of Iran’s total population…
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Egypt COVID-19 - cracks showing

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Egypt COVID-19 - cracks showing
DATE: 13APR2020

COVID-19 may be the ultimate unwelcome visitor. Its arrival was bad news but its stay is even worse and the longer that stay the more pressure it places on its hosts.

In Egypt, as with almost every country worldwide, that pressure is starting to show cracks.
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Egypt - progress in Nile dam talks

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Egypt - progress in Nile dam talks
DATE: 21JAN2020

Diplomacy rarely produces big, flashy outcomes. One is more likely to wind up with an infuriatingly slow, cumulative drip, drip, drip of incremental results that — hopefully — help to fill out the larger picture.

The tripartite talks between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan on the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) have been a case in point…
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Syria’s 2020 outlook

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Syria’s 2020 outlook
DATE: 06JAN2020

No matter where you look, the prospects for Syria and its people in 2020 seem extremely grim. Militarily, the most concerning issue remains the fate of Idlib, where at least three million people – roughly 16 percent of Syria’s in-country population – remain crammed in a killing-zone that encompasses just 3.5 percent of its territory…
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Egypt’s 2020 outlook

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Egypt’s 2020 outlook
DATE: 06JAN2020

The only prediction that one can make for certain for Egypt’s coming year is that it will be a hectic one.
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Pakistan’s prime minister visits allies for aid

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Pakistan’s prime minister visits allies for aid
DATE: 29OCT2020

Later this week Pakistan’s prime minister, Imran Khan, will travel to China, the second foreign country he has visited since assuming office in August. The main purpose of his travel is the same as for his recent trip to Saudi Arabia: to acquire financial assistance to shore up a hemorrhaging Pakistan economy…
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Iran prepares for sanctions

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Iran prepares for sanctions
DATE: 29OCT2020

On 28OCT, for the first time in its history, Iran sold some of its crude oil via an energy exchange house. This new approach of selling to anonymous private customers is part of Tehran’s efforts to evade US sanctions on Iranian oil, which are set to be imposed from Nov. 4. Whether it will be that much harder for Washington to identify…
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