Yemen and the implications for Russia in the area

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Yemen and the implications for Russia in the area
DATE: 19JUN2020

Since Russia’s military intervention in Syria intensified in September 2015, many analysts have been busy trying to assess and understand Moscow’s role in the Near East (NE) and North Africa (NAF). When discussing Russia’s regional foreign policy, the following three points are key…
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Iran - cyberattack against Israeli water supply

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Iran - cyberattack against Israeli water supply
DATE: 09MAY2020

Iran is being linked to an attempted cyberattack last month aimed at disrupting water supplies in at least two locations in Israel as that country was seeking to contain a C-19 outbreak…
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Intel & COVID-19 vaccine hunt?

AX COVID-19 UPDATE: Intel & COVID-19 vaccine hunt?
DATE: 05MAY2020

Spy agencies from practically every country are participating in a worldwide competition to develop a vaccine for the COVID-19 pandemic, by protecting their own biomedical secrets while trying to steal other nations’ research. Much like frantic efforts to secure personal protective equipment like masks and gloves, ongoing research to develop a vaccine against COVID-19 appears to be taking the form of a competition between nations. The country that first develops a successful vaccine to combat the epidemic is likely to emerge as…
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Mexico - Drug cartels using COVID-19 to build support

AX COVID-19 UPDATE: Mexico - Drug cartels using COVID-19 to build support
DATE: 4MAY2020

Drug cartels are organizing sophisticated ‘care package’ drives throughout Mexico in an attempt to build political capital and solidify their community support. Nearly every drug cartel in Mexico is organizing its own handout distribution activities, including the Sinaloa Cartel, the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), the Gulf Cartel, Los Viagras, and a host of splinter groups that came out of Los Zetas…
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DHS warns of attacks by extremists re COVID-19

AX INTEL BULLETIN: DHS warns of attacks by extremists re COVID-19
DATE: 24APR2020

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has warned law enforcement departments across the United States that violent extremists are mobilizing against health restrictions imposed to combat the novel coronavirus. This is the third warning known to have been issued by the DHS in the past month about the potential of violence by domestic violent extremists…
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Radical groups using COVID-19

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Radical groups using COVID-19
DATE: 23APR2020

The two main intelligence agencies of Belgium have published a declassified report in which they warn that domestic groups on the far left and far right of the political spectrum are using the COVID-19 pandemic to destabilize society. Among other things, these groups are spreading disinformation in order to…
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New obstacles to countering insurgency / terrorism

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: New obstacles to countering insurgency / terrorism
DATE: 23APR

The proliferation of COVID-19 across the Middle East and North Africa poses a potentially significant challenge to governments countering insurgency and terrorism, particularly from religiously inspired actors. In recent weeks, a broad array of jihadist movements affiliated with al-Qaeda and ISIS have expounded on how the virus was an illustration of God’s power on earth and principally, a tool wielded in order to weaken the enemy and leave it vulnerable to attack…
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Iran & Economic Fallout of C19

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Iran & Economic Fallout of C19
DATE: 23APR2020

COVID-19’s impact on Iran, one of the early epicenters of the outbreak, has been particularly severe. With official figures (likely very under-reported when compared to the percentages coming from open societies) of nearly 75,000 confirmed cases and over 4,600 deaths, it is among the top 10 hardest hit countries. The outbreak is expected to peak around late May and researchers are worried that if the Iranian public and government do not adhere to significantly stricter quarantine and social distancing measures, COVID-19-related deaths could reach as high as 3.5 million or 4.3 percent of Iran’s total population…
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C19, oil and redesigning the Middle East

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: C19, oil and redesigning the Middle East
DATE: 22APR // 2245GMT

The Middle East is facing an unexpected turning point. The region will not look the same after COVID-19 as it did before it. Prior to the outbreak, the Middle East had managed to normalize the geostrategic implications of the Arab Spring. Tunisia transitioned to a fully functioning democracy, Egypt ended up with a strongman, Syria became a catastrophe, Jordan and Morocco enacted some reforms, while Algeria and Sudan are still struggling with transitions and Lebanon stands on the brink of economic collapse…
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COVID-19 Impact on Near East

AX C19 BULLETIN: Impact on the Middle East
DATE: 23APR2020 // 1308GMT

  • Worldwide Confirmed 2,639,243
  • Recovered 715,734
  • Deaths 183,820

The coronavirus crisis in the Middle East is in its early stages, and looks set to have devastating humanitarian and economic costs. Deaths could rise into the millions, and economic contraction could be in the double digits. The pandemic risks pushing more precarious countries toward collapse, exacerbating civil wars, generating more refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs), and escalating regional conflict…
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Yemen - Saudis see an exit but talks won’t resolve conflict

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Yemen - Saudis see an exit but talks won’t resolve conflict
DATE: 15APR2020

During the Munich Security Conference in February 2020, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, signaled that the Saudi-Houthi backchannel talks were not “ready to move to the highest level.” However, the situation changed following the Houthi ballistic missile attack…
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Egypt COVID-19 - cracks showing

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Egypt COVID-19 - cracks showing
DATE: 13APR2020

COVID-19 may be the ultimate unwelcome visitor. Its arrival was bad news but its stay is even worse and the longer that stay the more pressure it places on its hosts.

In Egypt, as with almost every country worldwide, that pressure is starting to show cracks.
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