Egypt - progress in Nile dam talks

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Egypt - progress in Nile dam talks
DATE: 21JAN2020

Diplomacy rarely produces big, flashy outcomes. One is more likely to wind up with an infuriatingly slow, cumulative drip, drip, drip of incremental results that — hopefully — help to fill out the larger picture.

The tripartite talks between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan on the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) have been a case in point…
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Syria’s 2020 outlook

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Syria’s 2020 outlook
DATE: 06JAN2020

No matter where you look, the prospects for Syria and its people in 2020 seem extremely grim. Militarily, the most concerning issue remains the fate of Idlib, where at least three million people – roughly 16 percent of Syria’s in-country population – remain crammed in a killing-zone that encompasses just 3.5 percent of its territory…
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Turkey's 2020 outlook

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Turkey's 2020 outlook
DATE: 06JAN2020

2019 proved to be a difficult year for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. At home, he faced several challenges, including a troubled economy, unrest within his own party, and a significant loss at the ballot box. The long-running problems in Turkey-U.S. relations got worse, Turkey-EU tensions heightened, and Ankara found itself isolated in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Turkey cultivated closer ties to Russia, but that partnership was not without its problems either…
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Egypt’s 2020 outlook

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Egypt’s 2020 outlook
DATE: 06JAN2020

The only prediction that one can make for certain for Egypt’s coming year is that it will be a hectic one.
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Soleimani’s assassination & what’s next?

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Soleimani’s assassination & what’s next?
DATE: 03JAN2020

The killing of Qassem Soleimani is one of the biggest developments in the Middle East in decades — it far eclipses the deaths of Osama bin Laden or Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in terms of strategic significance and implications.

The U.S. and Iran have been engaged in a dangerous tit-for-tat for months now, but this is a massive walk up the escalation ladder…
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